The number and arrangement of Great Powers in the international system condition the strategic environment and frame the policy choices made by these powerful rivals seeking to maximize individual wealth, influence, and security in conditions of uncertainty and anarchy.6 Less powerful states retain agency to seek wealth, influence, and security, bu
as being powerful and having
as being powerful and having influence—and are treated accordingly. Today, the United States, China, and Russia fit this Great Power description. However, the triangular Great Power structure is not durable.5 One of these Great Powers could decline precipitously and fall from status, thereby altering the structure of global power distribution fro
Power identities before 2030
It next evaluates the prospects for changes in Great Power identities before 2030 based on forecast changes in relative power. The article concludes with an assessment of the prospects for potentially ruinous near-term direct war between Great Powers Great Power competition describes the dominant feature of the geostrategic environment. It informs